Forest Research: Open Access

Forest Research: Open Access
Open Access

ISSN: 2168-9776

Lucio Montecchio

  • Research Article
    Risk of Natural Spread of Hymenoscyphus fraxineus with Environmental Niche Modelling and Ensemble Forecasting Technique
    Author(s): Elisa Dal Maso and Lucio MontecchioElisa Dal Maso and Lucio Montecchio

    Ash dieback, caused by the ascomycete Hymenoscyphus fraxineus, is rapidly expanding over large geographical areas in Europe. A myriad of factors influence pest invasions and long-term establishment, i.e., species’ life stage, the availability of suitable hosts and the suitability of the environment. This paper examines the principal environmental features that characterise naturally infected zones in order to forecast the potential distribution of the pathogen within the ranges of European ash species by means of Species Distribution Modelling and an ensemble forecasting technique. Furthermore, a network analysis permitted dispersal dynamics to be included in order to obtain realistic risk predictions for the natural spread. The multi-modelling procedure allowed the most endangered regions to be identified as the central and eastern Alps, Baltic States, southern Finland and the .. View More»
    DOI: 10.4172/2168-9776.1000131

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