Journal of Tourism & Hospitality

Journal of Tourism & Hospitality
Open Access

ISSN: 2167-0269

+44 1300 500008


Is Cancun Dazed and Confused with the Butlers Life Cycle Model?

Vazquez JBB, Puls SL and Guillen Breton MRL

In Cancun, the widespread view of the local academia, business and government is that the destination has passed its maturity stage and has begun to show signs of being in its phase of decline. Coincidentally, these conclusions were performed based on Butler’s life cycle model of a tourist destination. Therefore, the objective of this paper is to check, with data from the last 15 years, if the available information on number of received tourists and the economic income generated by them, supports these claims. The intention is to demonstrate Butler’s proposal of 1980 regarding the life cycle of a tourist destination shows an association between the variables time, economic flow and number of tourists. Cancun’s case shows an association between the time variable, represented by the years 1999-2015, with the economic flow; and in a second example; it shows an association in respect to the number of tourists. The above is necessary, since if it did not exist dependence between different variables with a destination’s timeline, it would not be possible to argue the Butlerian postulate of the life cycle. To achieve this, we will establish hypotheses assuming independence among variables. The method to be used will be the formulation of contingency tables as support for critical analysis and probability value based on χ² better known as chi or chi square. The finding is that for the analyzed variables, it can be asserted that the tourist destination of Cancun does not show a significant decline, even though this contradicts the views of other researches and opinions.