Journal of Clinical & Experimental Pharmacology

Department of Tropical Medicine, Medical Microbiology and Pharmacology, University of Hawaii, Hawaii, USA

Publications

• Research   
  Predicting the Severity of Disease Progression in COVID-19 at the Individual and Population Level: A Mathematical Model
  Author(s): Narendra Chirmule*, Ravindra Khare, Pradip Nair, Bela Desai, Vivek Nerurkar and Amitabh Gaur
  
  The impact of COVID-19 disease on health and economy has been global, and the magnitude of devastation is unparalleled in modern history. Any potential course of action to manage this complex disease requires the systematic and efficient analysis of data that can delineate the underlying pathogenesis. We have developed a mathematical model of disease progression to predict the clinical outcome, utilizing a set of causal factors known to contribute to COVID-19 pathology such as age, comorbidities, and certain viral and immunological parameters. Viral load and selected indicators of a dysfunctional immune response, such as cytokines IL-6 and IFNα which contribute to the cytokine storm and fever, parameters of inflammation d-dimer and ferritin, aberrations in lymphocyte number, lymphopenia, and neutralizing antibodies were included for the analysis. The model .. View more»
  

  DOI: 10.35248/2161-1459.21.11.283

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