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Devaraj M Navaratnam
United Lincolnshire Hospital Trust, UK
Publications
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Research Article
Analysing Covid-19 Epidemic Trajectories: are Countries Flattening the Curve?
Author(s): Arnout JW Everts*, Devaraj M Navaratnam, Sumitha Navaratnam and Danaraj Navaratnam
Introduction: We evaluated COVID19 epidemic trajectories of different countries in terms of relative trajectory steepness and anticipated epidemic duration, in other words “flatness of the curve”. Methods: We used open-domain data on COVID-19 reported cases and deaths per country per day. A subset of 47 countries was analysed. Data were fitted with an analytical model following Gompertz equation. Uncertainty pertaining to the model forecasts was also quantified. To relate differences in epidemic trajectories of different countries to the mitigation approach taken by governments of those countries, we made use of the COVID-19 Government Response Stringency Index developed and published by Oxford University and Blavatnik School. Results: Acceptable quality fits were obtained for all the countries with R2 .. View more»